Blue Jays at Athletics
Last play · Tommy White strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Athletics0%
TOR 100%ATH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 1 ATH
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-162 / +134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Athletics favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Smith homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — -20% Blue Jays
7Donovan Walton homers (6) on a line drive to right field.4–2
6Josh Smith grounds into a double play, second baseman Donovan Walton to first baseman Jeff McNeil. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Alejandro Kirk out at 2nd. Josh Smith out at 1st.4–1
6Alejandro Kirk singles on a ground ball to center fielder Henry Bolte. Nathan Lukes scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd.3–1
4Carlos Cortes homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
2Kazuma Okamoto homers (30) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
2Josh Smith homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
