Guardians at Braves
CLE5–
ATL11Last play · José Ramírez flies out sharply to center fielder Michael Harris II.
Win probability
Braves100%
CLE 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 2 – 1 ATL
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Drake Baldwin scores. (inning 6) — +31% Braves
8Austin Riley singles on a line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. Drake Baldwin scores. Austin Riley to 2nd. Austin Riley advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Angel Martínez.5–11
8Drake Baldwin doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Mauricio Dubón scores.5–10
8Angel Martínez singles on a fly ball to shortstop Mauricio Dubón. Rhys Hoskins scores. Juan Brito scores. David Fry to 3rd.5–9
8Rhys Hoskins singles on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Chase DeLauter scores.3–9
7Dominic Smith singles on a line drive to left fielder Angel Martínez. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Ozzie Albies to 2nd.2–9
7Ozzie Albies singles on a ground ball to center fielder Steven Kwan. Matt Olson scores. Mike Yastrzemski to 3rd.2–8
6Michael Harris II homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Dominic Smith scores.2–7
6Dominic Smith singles on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Austin Riley scores.2–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.