Marlins at Braves
MIA10–
ATL4Last play · Austin Riley grounds into a double play, shortstop Otto Lopez to second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Connor Norby. Matt Olson out at 2nd. Austin Riley out at 1st.
Win probability
Braves0%
MIA 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 6 – 4 ATL
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Agustín Ramírez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Graham Pauley scores. Xavier Edwards scores. (inning 5) — -36% Marlins
8Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Xavier Edwards scores. Agustín Ramírez to 2nd.10–4
6Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ozzie Albies, deflected by pitcher Rolddy Muñoz. Jakob Marsee scores. Agustín Ramírez to 2nd.9–4
6Agustín Ramírez singles on a ground ball to third baseman Austin Riley. Heriberto Hernández scores. Jakob Marsee to 3rd.8–4
6Connor Norby homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.7–4
5Austin Riley grounds out sharply, pitcher Andrew Nardi to second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Connor Norby. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Drake Baldwin to 3rd.6–4
5Agustín Ramírez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Graham Pauley scores. Xavier Edwards scores.6–3
4Dominic Smith out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Owen Caissie. Austin Riley scores.3–3
4Mike Yastrzemski singles on a ground ball to right fielder Owen Caissie. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.