Marlins at Braves
Last play · Otto Lopez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves100%
MIA 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Riley homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 6) — +12% Braves
8Heriberto Hernández reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Mauricio Dubón. Connor Norby scores. Austin Slater to 2nd.3–6
8Liam Hicks homers (4) on a line drive to right field. Otto Lopez scores.2–6
7Matt Olson homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Drake Baldwin scores.0–6
7Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Austin Slater. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.0–4
6Austin Riley homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
2Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Dominic Smith to 2nd.0–2
2Ozzie Albies homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
