Marlins at Braves
Last play · Graham Pauley flies out to center fielder Michael Harris II.
Win probability
Braves100%
MIA 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 4 – 3 ATL
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Smith doubles (2) on a fly ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Drake Baldwin scores. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Ozzie Albies scores. (inning 8) — +73% Braves
8Dominic Smith doubles (2) on a fly ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Drake Baldwin scores. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Ozzie Albies scores.5–6
8Otto Lopez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Agustín Ramírez scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd.5–3
3Matt Olson doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Drake Baldwin scores.4–3
3Drake Baldwin doubles (3) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Mauricio Dubón scores.4–2
2Dominic Smith singles on a line drive to right fielder Owen Caissie. Ozzie Albies scores.4–1
2Jakob Marsee singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Graham Pauley scores.4–0
2Graham Pauley doubles (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Connor Norby scores. Javier Sanoja out at home on the throw, right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. to shortstop Mauricio Dubón to catcher Drake Baldwin.3–0
2Connor Norby singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Otto Lopez scores. Connor Norby to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
