Phillies at Braves
Last play · Alec Bohm flies out to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.
Win probability
Braves100%
PHI 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 6 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+179 / -219
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Drake Baldwin scores. (inning 1) — +24% Braves
8Kyle Schwarber homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Rafael Marchán scores.2–6
2Drake Baldwin singles on a line drive to right fielder Adolis García. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.0–6
2Eli White homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Mauricio Dubón scores.0–5
1Matt Olson homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Drake Baldwin scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
