Phillies at Braves
Last play · Michael Harris II grounds out, first baseman Bryce Harper to pitcher Kyle Backhus.
Win probability
Braves0%
PHI 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 2 ATL
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -127
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Garrett Stubbs scores. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd. (inning 10) — -44% Phillies
10Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Eli White scores.8–5
10Brandon Marsh singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Dylan Moore scores. Bryce Harper scores.8–4
10Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Garrett Stubbs scores. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.6–4
8Bryce Harper out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Eli White. Kyle Schwarber scores.4–4
6Michael Harris II singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Ozzie Albies scores.3–4
6Ozzie Albies doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Matt Olson scores.3–3
5Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to shortstop Mauricio Dubón. Rafael Marchán scores. Trea Turner to 2nd.3–2
4Austin Riley doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
