Phillies at Braves
Last play · Brandon Marsh grounds out, pitcher Robert Suarez to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
PHI 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 2 ATL
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Harris II doubles (4) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Dominic Smith scores. Mauricio Dubón scores. (inning 6) — +34% Braves
6Ronald Acuña Jr. walks.3–5
6Michael Harris II doubles (4) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Justin Crawford. Dominic Smith scores. Mauricio Dubón scores.3–4
5Bryce Harper homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
3Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Eli White scores.2–2
3Trea Turner homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Garrett Stubbs scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
