Tigers at Braves
Last play · Gleyber Torres pops out to first baseman Matt Olson in foul territory.
Win probability
Braves100%
DET 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 0 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Javier Báez. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. (inning 3) — +12% Braves
9Wenceel Pérez homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Colt Keith scores.2–5
8Ozzie Albies homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Matt Olson scores.0–5
7Mike Yastrzemski singles on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Mauricio Dubón scores.0–3
3Matt Olson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Javier Báez. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.0–2
3Ronald Acuña Jr. doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Mike Yastrzemski scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
