Cubs at Braves
Last play · Dominic Smith lines out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Win probability
Braves0%
CHC 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 0 ATL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 8) — -23% Cubs
8Ian Happ homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.2–0
6Matt Shaw grounds into a force out, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to second baseman Ozzie Albies. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki out at 2nd. Matt Shaw to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
