Red Sox at Braves
Last play · Mike Yastrzemski doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ha-Seong Kim scores.
Win probability
Braves100%
BOS 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcelo Mayer homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 7) — -22% Red Sox
10Mike Yastrzemski doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Ha-Seong Kim scores.2–3
7Marcelo Mayer homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
6Mickey Gasper singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Carlos Narváez scores.1–2
4Michael Harris II homers (8) on a line drive to center field.0–2
1Drake Baldwin homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
