Red Sox at Braves
Last play · Ha-Seong Kim grounds out, pitcher Aroldis Chapman to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Braves0%
BOS 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Wilyer Abreu scores. (inning 8) — -52% Red Sox
8Willson Contreras homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Wilyer Abreu scores.3–2
5Drake Baldwin singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. José Azócar scores. Drake Baldwin out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Jarren Duran to catcher Mickey Gasper to second baseman Marcelo Mayer.1–2
4Braves challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Masataka Yoshida out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Mickey Gasper scores.1–1
1Drake Baldwin homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
