Red Sox at Braves
Last play · Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves100%
BOS 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 7 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Riley homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II scores. (inning 1) — +24% Braves
9Nick Sogard doubles (1) on a line drive to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Connor Wong scores.1–8
8Drake Baldwin out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Jorge Mateo scores.0–8
5Dominic Smith singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Austin Riley scores.0–7
4Mike Yastrzemski homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–6
2Matt Olson grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras. Mike Yastrzemski scores. José Azócar to 3rd. Drake Baldwin to 2nd.0–5
2Drake Baldwin walks. Jorge Mateo scores. Mike Yastrzemski to 3rd. José Azócar to 2nd.0–4
1Austin Riley homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
