Nationals at Braves
Last play · Ronald Acuña Jr. grounds out softly, first baseman Luis García Jr. to pitcher Orlando Ribalta.
Win probability
Braves0%
WSH 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 0 ATL
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nasim Nuñez singles on a line drive to right fielder Eli White. Daylen Lile scores. Jacob Young to 2nd. (inning 5) — -16% Nationals
9Eli White reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Nasim Nuñez. Ozzie Albies scores. Austin Riley to 2nd. Fielding error by second baseman Nasim Nuñez.2–1
8Luis García Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Eli White. James Wood scores.2–0
5Nasim Nuñez singles on a line drive to right fielder Eli White. Daylen Lile scores. Jacob Young to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
