Nationals at Braves
Last play · Ozzie Albies grounds out, third baseman Jorbit Vivas to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Braves0%
WSH 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 0 ATL
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -173
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorbit Vivas homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — -18% Nationals
5Jorbit Vivas homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
4Dylan Crews homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
