Blue Jays at Braves
Last play · Austin Riley lines out sharply to left fielder Myles Straw.
Win probability
Braves0%
TOR 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 1 ATL
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+210 / -261
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Myles Straw singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Charles McAdoo scores. Nathan Lukes to 2nd. (inning 3) — -21% Blue Jays
9Tyler Heineman doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Nathan Lukes scores. Myles Straw scores.7–2
9Myles Straw singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Nathan Lukes to 3rd.5–2
9Nathan Lukes singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Ernie Clement scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.4–2
8Mauricio Dubón homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
3Matt Olson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Yohendrick Piñango. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.3–1
3Myles Straw singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Charles McAdoo scores. Nathan Lukes to 2nd.3–0
3Charles McAdoo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
