Blue Jays at Braves
Last play · Jesús Sánchez pops out to third baseman Austin Riley.
Win probability
Braves100%
TOR 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 3 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — +26% Braves
6Matt Olson homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
6Daulton Varsho out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Nathan Lukes scores.3–3
3Ozzie Albies singles on a ground ball to left fielder Nathan Lukes. Matt Olson scores.2–3
2Kazuma Okamoto homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Yohendrick Piñango scores.2–2
1Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Michael Harris II scores.0–2
1Michael Harris II doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
