Blue Jays at Braves
TOR3–
ATL7Last play · Myles Straw strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves100%
TOR 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 4 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies scores. (inning 3) — +38% Braves
9Brandon Valenzuela homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.3–7
7Ozzie Albies homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Dominic Smith scores. Matt Olson scores.2–7
3Mauricio Dubón homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies scores.2–4
3Nathan Lukes homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
2Ha-Seong Kim singles on a fly ball to left fielder Nathan Lukes. Eli White scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 2nd. Ha-Seong Kim advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Nathan Lukes.1–1
1Jesús Sánchez grounds into a double play, second baseman Ozzie Albies to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to first baseman Matt Olson. Nathan Lukes scores. Yohendrick Piñango to 3rd. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out at 2nd. Jesús Sánchez out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.