Pirates at Braves
PIT3–
ATL6Last play · Ryan O'Hearn grounds into a double play, second baseman Ozzie Albies to shortstop Mauricio Dubón to first baseman Matt Olson. Marcell Ozuna out at 2nd. Ryan O'Hearn out at 1st.
Win probability
Braves100%
PIT 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 6 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Ozzie Albies scores. (inning 3) — +25% Braves
5Austin Riley doubles (9) on a fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Mauricio Dubón scores.3–6
5Dominic Smith out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Matt Olson scores. Mauricio Dubón to 3rd.3–5
5Mauricio Dubón doubles (13) on a line drive to right fielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Michael Harris II scores. Matt Olson to 3rd.3–4
3Mauricio Dubón homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Ozzie Albies scores.3–3
3Marcell Ozuna singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Nick Gonzales scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd.3–1
3Nick Gonzales singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Austin Riley. Jared Triolo scores.2–1
3Henry Davis out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Spencer Horwitz scores. Jared Triolo to 3rd.1–1
2Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Austin Riley scores. Mike Yastrzemski to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.