Giants at Braves
Last play · Austin Riley strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves0%
SF 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 5 – 0 ATL
Giants led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willy Adames homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — -16% Giants
9Ozzie Albies grounds out, first baseman Bryce Eldridge to pitcher Tristan Beck. Matt Olson to 3rd.7–5
9Mauricio Dubón homers (7) on a line drive to left center field. Jair Camargo scores.7–4
9Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Jonah Cox scores. Drew Gilbert scores.7–2
6Dominic Smith out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Ozzie Albies scores.5–2
6Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to left fielder Casey Schmitt. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies to 2nd.5–1
2Bryce Eldridge homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.5–0
2Luis Arraez homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Eric Haase scores.4–0
2Willy Adames homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
