Giants at Braves
Last play · Eli White strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves0%
SF 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 5 – 2 ATL
Giants led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin homers (14) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 1) — +17% Braves
9Matt Chapman grounds into a force out, pitcher Anthony Molina to second baseman Ozzie Albies. Luis Arraez scores. Bryce Eldridge out at 2nd. Matt Chapman to 1st.7–2
8Willy Adames homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.6–2
5Jung Hoo Lee homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.5–2
5Rafael Devers homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.4–2
2Matt Chapman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Mauricio Dubón. Drew Gilbert scores.3–2
2Bryce Eldridge walks. Casey Schmitt scores. Drew Gilbert to 3rd. Luis Arraez to 2nd.2–2
1Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Michael Harris II scores. Dominic Smith to 3rd.1–2
1Drake Baldwin homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
