Brewers at Braves
Last play · William Contreras strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves100%
MIL 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 0 ATL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.1% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-181 / +149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Jorge Mateo scores. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson to 2nd. (inning 6) — +34% Braves
9Brewers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Brewers challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Brice Turang singles on a line drive to left fielder Eli White. Christian Yelich scores. Jackson Chourio out at home on the throw, left fielder Eli White to catcher Drake Baldwin.2–3
7Mike Yastrzemski homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
6Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Jorge Mateo scores. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson to 2nd.1–2
3Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to shortstop Jorge Mateo. Blake Perkins scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd. Jackson Chourio to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
