Brewers at Braves
Last play · Joey Bart grounds out, third baseman David Hamilton to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Braves0%
MIL 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 8 – 2 ATL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Frelick doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores. (inning 2) — -25% Brewers
9Rowdy Tellez homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Ozzie Albies scores.9–4
7David Hamilton strikes out swinging.9–2
4Joey Bart grounds out softly, third baseman David Hamilton to first baseman Jake Bauers. Michael Harris II scores.8–2
2William Contreras homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Jackson Chourio scores. Brice Turang scores.8–1
2Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to right fielder Eli White. Christian Yelich scores. Jackson Chourio to 2nd.5–1
2Jackson Chourio singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. David Hamilton scores. Christian Yelich to 2nd.4–1
2David Hamilton doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Sal Frelick scores.3–1
2Sal Frelick doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers scores.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
