Cardinals at Braves
Last play · Mauricio Dubón grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Blaze Jordan.
Win probability
Braves0%
STL 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 1 ATL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Church homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Masyn Winn scores. Lars Nootbaar scores. (inning 4) — -34% Cardinals
8Rowdy Tellez walks.5–3
7Ozzie Albies singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Jorge Mateo scores. Drake Baldwin to 2nd.5–2
6Blaze Jordan out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Eli White. Masyn Winn scores.5–1
4Nathan Church homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Masyn Winn scores. Lars Nootbaar scores.4–1
4Nelson Velázquez homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
3Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Jorge Mateo scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
