Cardinals at Braves
Last play · Ozzie Albies pops out to first baseman Alec Burleson in foul territory.
Win probability
Braves0%
STL 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 5 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Church homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 7) — -36% Cardinals
9Alec Burleson homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.11–5
7Braves challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Masyn Winn reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Matt Olson. Jordan Walker scores. Lars Nootbaar to 3rd.10–5
7Lars Nootbaar doubles (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd.9–5
7Jordan Walker singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. JJ Wetherholt scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd.8–5
7Iván Herrera singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. José Fermín scores. JJ Wetherholt to 3rd.7–5
7JJ Wetherholt singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Bryan Torres scores. José Fermín to 3rd.6–5
7Nathan Church homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Masyn Winn scores.5–5
1Mike Yastrzemski out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Nathan Church. Dominic Smith scores.3–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
