Mets at Braves
Last play · Francisco Lindor grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
NYM 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 4 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Juan Soto homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. A.J. Ewing scores. (inning 3) — -23% Mets
9Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Luis Torrens scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.3–5
8Matt Olson homers (22) on a fly ball to right field.2–5
5Matt Olson homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
3Ozzie Albies homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
3Juan Soto homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. A.J. Ewing scores.2–2
2Michael Harris II homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Mauricio Dubón scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
