Mets at Braves
Last play · A.J. Ewing grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
NYM 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 6 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eli White reaches on a fielding error by center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley scores. Michael Harris II scores. Eli White to 2nd. (inning 3) — +14% Braves
8Michael Harris II homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field.3–14
8Austin Riley homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Mauricio Dubón scores. Ozzie Albies scores.3–13
7Mike Yastrzemski homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Harris II scores.3–10
6Mauricio Dubón grounds out, second baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Mark Vientos. Joey Bart scores. Jorge Mateo to 2nd.3–8
6Joey Bart doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Mike Yastrzemski scores.3–7
6Mark Vientos homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Bo Bichette scores.3–6
5Tyrone Taylor homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.1–6
4Mauricio Dubón homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
