Mets at Braves
Last play · Dominic Smith strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves0%
NYM 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 5 – 3 ATL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -122
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Juan Soto singles on a line drive to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Brett Baty scores. Francisco Lindor scores. (inning 2) — -24% Mets
9Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to first baseman Jared Young. Matt Olson scores.10–9
9Drake Baldwin hits a grand slam (15) to left field. Dominic Smith scores. Austin Riley scores. Eli White scores.10–8
9Austin Riley singles on a line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Dominic Smith to 3rd.10–4
9Jared Young singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Juan Soto scores. Bo Bichette scores.10–3
9Bo Bichette doubles (14) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Brett Baty scores. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.8–3
9Tyrone Taylor homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.6–3
2Juan Soto singles on a line drive to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Brett Baty scores. Francisco Lindor scores.5–3
2Francisco Lindor singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Luis Torrens scores. Brett Baty to 3rd. Francisco Lindor to 2nd.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
