Rangers at Braves
TEX1–
ATL15Last play · Jake Burger grounds out, second baseman Jorge Mateo to first baseman Dominic Smith.
Win probability
Braves100%
TEX 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 8 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+179 / -219
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Jim Jarvis scores. Brewer Hicklen scores. (inning 4) — +13% Braves
8Victor Mederos singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alejandro Osuna, deflected by third baseman Josh Jung. Brewer Hicklen scores. Jorge Mateo scores.1–15
8Austin Riley homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.1–13
8Nicky Lopez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Cam Cauley scores.1–12
7Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Michael Harris II scores.0–12
7Michael Harris II doubles (18) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Cam Cauley. Drake Baldwin scores. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson scores.0–11
5Drake Baldwin singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cam Cauley. Jim Jarvis scores.0–8
5Jim Jarvis doubles (3) on a ground ball to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Dominic Smith scores.0–7
4Matt Olson homers (26) on a fly ball to right field.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.