Mets at Braves
Last play · Mauricio Dubón grounds into a force out, shortstop Ronny Mauricio to second baseman Brett Baty. Jorge Mateo out at 2nd.
Win probability
Braves0%
NYM 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 3 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Juan Soto homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Tyrone Taylor scores. Ronny Mauricio scores. (inning 9) — -78% Mets
10Michael Harris II doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. José Azócar scores.7–6
10Luis Torrens doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Jorge Mateo. Bo Bichette scores. Jared Young scores.7–5
9Matt Olson homers (24) on a line drive to left field. Ozzie Albies scores.5–5
9Juan Soto homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Tyrone Taylor scores. Ronny Mauricio scores.5–3
6Francisco Alvarez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young to 3rd.2–3
3Matt Olson homers (23) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
2Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Jim Jarvis to 2nd.1–2
2Jim Jarvis singles on a fly ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Dominic Smith scores. Mike Yastrzemski to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
