Rangers at Braves
Last play · Michael Harris II flies out to left fielder Wyatt Langford.
Win probability
Braves0%
TEX 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 3 – 5 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-103 / -117
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Evan Carter homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Ezequiel Duran scores. (inning 6) — -31% Rangers
7Mauricio Dubón doubles (20) on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Michael Harris II scores.7–6
6Brandon Nimmo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Joc Pederson scores. Wyatt Langford scores. Josh Jung to 3rd.7–5
6Evan Carter homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Ezequiel Duran scores.5–5
3Michael Harris II homers (17) on a fly ball to right field.3–5
3Brandon Nimmo singles on a line drive to right fielder Eli White. Joc Pederson scores. Wyatt Langford to 2nd.3–4
3Wyatt Langford singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Kyle Higashioka scores. Joc Pederson to 3rd.2–4
2Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Evan Carter. Jim Jarvis scores.1–4
2Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Austin Riley scores. Jim Jarvis to 3rd.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
