Padres at Braves
Last play · Jake Cronenworth grounds into a force out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to shortstop Jim Jarvis. Luis Rengifo out at 2nd.
Win probability
Braves100%
SD 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ty France homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 7) — -16% Padres
7Ty France homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
6Ozzie Albies homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
5Joey Bart doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Mauricio Dubón scores.1–2
5Michael Harris II homers (18) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
4Manny Machado homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
