Padres at Braves
SD6–
ATL7Last play · Ty France called out on strikes.
Win probability
Braves100%
SD 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 1 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jim Jarvis doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Mauricio Dubón scores. (inning 8) — +29% Braves
9Luis Rengifo homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.6–7
9Fernando Tatis Jr. triples (2) on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Jake Cronenworth scores. Gavin Sheets scores.4–7
9Gavin Sheets singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.2–7
8Dominic Smith singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.1–7
8Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson to 3rd.1–6
8Matt Olson singles on a fly ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Drake Baldwin scores. Ozzie Albies to 2nd.1–5
8Ozzie Albies singles on a fly ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Brewer Hicklen scores. Drake Baldwin to 3rd.1–4
8Brewer Hicklen doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Jim Jarvis scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.