Padres at Braves
Last play · Matt Olson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves0%
SD 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 5 – 2 ATL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jim Jarvis triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Mauricio Dubón scores. Brewer Hicklen scores. (inning 2) — +25% Braves
8Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Rengifo scores.8–3
7Austin Riley strikes out on a foul tip.6–3
6Manny Machado homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.6–2
5Manny Machado homers (21) on a fly ball to left field.5–2
4Fernando Tatis Jr. doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Brewer Hicklen. Xander Bogaerts scores.4–2
4Luis Rengifo grounds out, shortstop Jim Jarvis to first baseman Matt Olson. Gavin Sheets scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd.3–2
4Jackson Merrill homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
2Jim Jarvis triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Mauricio Dubón scores. Brewer Hicklen scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
