Nationals at Braves
Last play · Luis García Jr. flies out to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.
Win probability
Braves100%
WSH 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 3 ATL
Tied through 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ozzie Albies singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Drake Baldwin scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. (inning 6) — +31% Braves
7Luis García Jr. triples (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. James Wood scores.4–5
6Ozzie Albies singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Drake Baldwin scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.3–5
5Mike Yastrzemski homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Dominic Smith scores.3–3
4Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
4Daylen Lile homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.3–0
3Luis García Jr. homers (23) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
2Daylen Lile homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
