Nationals at Braves
Last play · CJ Abrams grounds out, first baseman Matt Olson to pitcher Elieser Hernández.
Win probability
Braves100%
WSH 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+103 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Harris II homers (20) on a line drive to right field. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies scores. (inning 6) — +21% Braves
9Andrés Chaparro homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.2–6
6Jim Jarvis singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Mauricio Dubón scores. Joey Bart to 2nd.1–6
6Michael Harris II homers (20) on a line drive to right field. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies scores.1–5
4CJ Abrams homers (28) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
2Jim Jarvis singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Mauricio Dubón scores. Austin Riley to 2nd.0–2
1Matt Olson homers (29) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
