Nationals at Braves
Last play · Brady House strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves100%
WSH 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 3 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (31) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — +20% Braves
7Mike Yastrzemski out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dylan Crews. Mauricio Dubón scores.2–4
5Jim Jarvis reaches on a throwing error by shortstop CJ Abrams. Austin Riley scores.2–3
4Matt Olson homers (31) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
4James Wood out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. José Tena scores.2–1
4Andrés Chaparro hit by pitch. Keibert Ruiz scores. José Tena to 3rd. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd.1–1
3Mike Yastrzemski homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
