Nationals at Braves
Last play · Keibert Ruiz flies out to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.
Win probability
Braves100%
WSH 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 4 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Smith homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — +9% Braves
8CJ Abrams singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Andrés Chaparro scores. Dylan Crews scores.3–8
8Dylan Crews doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. James Wood scores. Andrés Chaparro to 3rd.1–8
7Austin Riley doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Matt Olson scores. Dominic Smith scores.0–8
7Dominic Smith walks. Drake Baldwin scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 3rd. Matt Olson to 2nd.0–5
4Dominic Smith homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.0–4
2Drake Baldwin singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Crews. Mike Yastrzemski scores.0–3
1Matt Olson homers (30) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
1Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
