Marlins at Braves
Last play · Marlins challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Jakob Marsee caught stealing 3rd base, catcher Drake Baldwin to third baseman Austin Riley.
Win probability
Braves100%
MIA 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 1 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+138 / -147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ozzie Albies homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — +15% Braves
9Leo Jiménez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Otto Lopez scores. Heriberto Hernández scores. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.2–4
8Mauricio Dubón grounds out, third baseman Leo Jiménez to first baseman Kyle Stowers.0–4
7Austin Riley homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Lane Thomas scores.0–3
2Ozzie Albies homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
