Mets at Braves
Last play · Mauricio Dubón flies out to right fielder Carson Benge.
Win probability
Braves0%
NYM 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 7 – 5 ATL
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+127 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty hits a grand slam (8) to center field. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young scores. (inning 1) — -25% Mets
9Jared Young out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Francisco Lindor scores.8–5
5Austin Riley walks.7–5
4Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brett Baty. Jim Jarvis scores. Drake Baldwin to 3rd.7–4
4Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge. Austin Riley scores. Jim Jarvis to 2nd.7–3
3Francisco Lindor homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.7–2
2Jared Young singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Francisco Lindor scores.6–2
1Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brett Baty. Drake Baldwin scores. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies to 2nd.5–2
1Brett Baty hits a grand slam (8) to center field. Bo Bichette scores. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young scores.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
