Mets at Braves
Last play · Carson Benge grounds out to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
NYM 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 1 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+111 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ozzie Albies homers (20) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — +22% Braves
8Matt Olson homers (35) on a fly ball to right field. Drake Baldwin scores.0–4
7Mauricio Dubón out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Matt Olson scores.0–2
5Ozzie Albies homers (20) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
