Marlins at Braves
MIA3–
ATL11Last play · Heriberto Hernández grounds out, third baseman Austin Riley to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
MIA 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -164
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Drake Baldwin scores. (inning 3) — +23% Braves
9Javier Sanoja doubles (23) on a line drive to left fielder Lane Thomas. Kyle Stowers scores.3–11
8Mauricio Dubón doubles (22) on a line drive to right fielder Griffin Conine. Michael Harris II scores.2–11
8Michael Harris II singles on a line drive to right fielder Griffin Conine. Matt Olson scores.2–10
8Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.2–9
7Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to center fielder Javier Sanoja. Michael Harris II scores.2–8
7Michael Harris II triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Javier Sanoja. Matt Olson scores.2–7
7Griffin Conine singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Leo Jiménez scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd.2–6
7Javier Sanoja singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Xavier Edwards scores. Leo Jiménez to 2nd.1–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.