D-backs at Braves
Last play · Mauricio Dubón grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Tim Tawa.
Win probability
Braves0%
AZ 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 6 – 2 ATL
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -133
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Waldschmidt singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Tim Tawa scores. (inning 2) — -15% D-backs
9Ha-Seong Kim grounds out, third baseman Nolan Arenado to first baseman Tim Tawa. Matt Olson scores.10–3
9Ildemaro Vargas homers (8) on a line drive to left center field. Gabriel Moreno scores. Nolan Arenado scores.10–2
7Nolan Arenado homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.7–2
3Nolan Arenado homers (19) on a fly ball to left field. Gabriel Moreno scores.6–2
3Gabriel Moreno doubles (25) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Corbin Carroll scores.4–2
2Ryan Waldschmidt singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Tim Tawa scores.3–2
2Tim Tawa singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lane Thomas. Max Kepler scores.2–2
2Nolan Arenado grounds out, third baseman Austin Riley to first baseman Matt Olson. Gabriel Moreno scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
