Mets at Braves
Last play · Marcus Semien grounds into a force out, third baseman Austin Riley to second baseman Ozzie Albies. Jared Young out at 2nd.
Win probability
Braves100%
NYM 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 3 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+158 / -170
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mike Yastrzemski homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 7) — +18% Braves
9Bo Bichette homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.3–6
7Drake Baldwin singles on a fly ball to left fielder A.J. Ewing. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.2–6
7Austin Riley homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
7Mike Yastrzemski homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
7Luis Robert Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
6Luis Torrens homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–3
5Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder A.J. Ewing. Austin Riley scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder A.J. Ewing to shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Brett Baty. Sean Murphy to 3rd.0–3
3Matt Olson grounds into a double play, shortstop Francisco Lindor to first baseman Jared Young. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Drake Baldwin out at 2nd. Matt Olson out at 1st.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
