D-backs at Braves
Last play · James McCann flies out to center fielder Michael Harris II.
Win probability
Braves100%
AZ 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+112 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (36) on a fly ball to center field. Austin Riley scores. Drake Baldwin scores. (inning 7) — +36% Braves
9Tim Tawa grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson. Ketel Marte scores. Max Kepler to 3rd.3–5
7Matt Olson homers (36) on a fly ball to center field. Austin Riley scores. Drake Baldwin scores.2–5
7Ildemaro Vargas homers (9) on a line drive to right field.2–2
5Ronald Acuña Jr. doubles (12) on a line drive to left fielder Max Kepler. Austin Riley scores.1–2
4Gabriel Moreno homers (9) on a line drive to left field.1–1
3Drake Baldwin singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Dominic Smith scores. Jim Jarvis to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
