Dodgers at Braves
Last play · Ha-Seong Kim singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Lane Thomas scores. Austin Riley to 2nd.
Win probability
Braves100%
LAD 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 3 – 4 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin doubles (12) on a fly ball to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Sean Murphy scores. (inning 4) — +29% Braves
9Ha-Seong Kim singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Lane Thomas scores. Austin Riley to 2nd.5–6
7Tommy Edman walks. Freddie Freeman scores. Mookie Betts to 3rd. Max Muncy to 2nd.5–5
7Mookie Betts singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman to 3rd.4–5
6Sean Murphy homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.3–5
4Drake Baldwin doubles (12) on a fly ball to left fielder Teoscar Hernández. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Sean Murphy scores.3–4
4Austin Riley out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Alek Thomas. Ozzie Albies scores.3–2
3Tommy Edman homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Freddie Freeman scores.3–1
2Hunter Feduccia singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Tommy Edman scores. Teoscar Hernández to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
