Rockies at Braves
Last play · Willi Castro lines out to second baseman Ozzie Albies.
Win probability
Braves100%
COL 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 3 – 6 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+200 / -216
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Harris II homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. (inning 5) — +18% Braves
7Willi Castro out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Jake McCarthy scores.4–6
5Michael Harris II homers (22) on a fly ball to right field. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.3–6
5TJ Rumfield grounds out, shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to first baseman Matt Olson. Cole Carrigg scores. Hunter Goodman to 2nd.3–4
5Hunter Goodman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski, deflected by third baseman Mauricio Dubón. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Cole Carrigg to 3rd.2–4
5Jake McCarthy out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Zac Veen scores.1–4
3Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.0–4
2Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Sean Murphy scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 3rd.0–3
2Sean Murphy doubles (3) on a ground ball to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Michael Harris II scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
