Rays at Braves
Last play · Ozzie Albies flies out to center fielder Jonny DeLuca.
Win probability
Braves0%
TB 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 1 ATL
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-103 / -117
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Liam Hicks homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Junior Caminero scores. (inning 3) — -26% Rays
9Richie Palacios homers (9) on a line drive to right field.7–1
8Yandy Díaz homers (22) on a line drive to left field.6–1
6Yandy Díaz grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to catcher Sean Murphy to first baseman Matt Olson. Jorge Mateo scores.5–1
3Victor Mesa Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Chandler Simpson scores.4–1
3Liam Hicks homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Junior Caminero scores.3–1
1Drake Baldwin singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Matt Olson to 3rd.1–1
1Junior Caminero homers (39) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
