Rockies at Braves
Last play · Jake McCarthy lines out to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.
Win probability
Braves100%
COL 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 0 ATL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+216 / -233
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Harris II doubles (32) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jordan Beck, deflected by center fielder Cole Carrigg. Matt Olson scores. Mauricio Dubón scores. (inning 8) — +61% Braves
8Michael Harris II doubles (32) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jordan Beck, deflected by center fielder Cole Carrigg. Matt Olson scores. Mauricio Dubón scores.1–2
6Willi Castro singles on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Hunter Goodman scores. TJ Rumfield to 3rd. Connor Norby to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
