Rays at Braves
Last play · Jonathan Aranda grounds out, pitcher Raisel Iglesias to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
TB 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 0 ATL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Braves favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Ozzie Albies scores. (inning 8) — +29% Braves
9Victor Mesa Jr. homers (12) on a line drive to right center field.1–3
8Ha-Seong Kim singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Austin Riley scores. Mike Yastrzemski scores.0–3
8Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Ozzie Albies scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
